Does it seem like many of the headlines we read are sensationalized? It's like a supermarket tabloid on steroids... Real Estate seems to be one of the favorite topics for speculation. One week a headline is saying things are looking up and then shortly after we read some bad news. The swings can be very significant in a relatively short period of time.
I am trying to do a better job understanding the credentials of the expert identified and their relationship with the topic they are making a prediction on. Are they local and familiar with the topic? What is their forecast accuracy track record? Google can be a wonderful tool for this type of research. These factors help me to better determine the credibility of the source.
My corporate experience has taught me a couple of useful lessons. First that past performance is a very good indicator of future success. So I try and find out the recent trends and market data. Just the facts is a great motto here. Second lesson is that longer term forecasts are less accurate than current forecasts. So I am becoming very skeptical of forecasts beyond six months.
Next I am trying to discipline myself to not react to headlines before running the story through my own credibility test. I've already noticed it makes the day much more enjoyable. Hopefully it will help you as well.Labels: Forecasts, Headlines, Marco Island, Marco Island Real Estate, media, Naples, Naples Real Estate
